Ad revenue should stabilize for media companies in 2025 — if they have sports

The advertising market has positive momentum going into 2025 — especially for media companies with sports rights and tentpole live programming.

Sports and live events such as awards shows reigned supreme in conversations with media executives who weighed in on their expectations for the advertising market in the year ahead. The end of the uncertainty surrounding the election has helped the outlook improve, too, they said.

And despite consumers fleeing the traditional TV bundles, with more ad dollars going toward streaming, executives emphasized that traditional TV is still important in discussions with advertisers, especially when it comes to sports.

Overall, executives said they expect stability in the market and are hoping to move past the slowdown in ad spending in recent years.

“Normalization is the right way to say it with the advertising market,â€� said Mark Marshall, NBCUniversalâ€s chairman of global advertising and partnerships. “With the election settled, a lot of companies feel the uncertainty over that has gone away.â€�

He added that the company has seen more so-called scatter market budgets come in during the fourth quarter, which is what the industry calls the buying and selling of ads closer to their airdate versus ads that are bought further out.

“Our first quarter is looking really strong. I think that any election year is challenging for anyone in the fourth quarter because a lot of marketers end up sitting on their hands since the airwaves and digital are crowded,â€� said Dan Porter, CEO of sports media company Overtime. “I think thatâ€s true for us and itâ€s true for everyone.â€�

Yet despite the uptick in ad revenue following the election and the forecast stability, Natalie Bastian, global chief marketing officer at Teads, said she expects a lot of the same trends.

Bastian noted that 2024 included major moments like the Summer Olympics and presidential election, which strengthened TV ad revenue. She expects the same budgets to carry over into the new year, however.

“What weâ€ve heard in general from some of our closest partners … media budgets arenâ€t growing, and so thereâ€s just more selection into where [advertisers are] spending their money,â€� said Bastian. This makes sports and live programming that much more important to media companies.

Overall, the global advertising industry is expected to surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time this year, excluding U.S. political advertising, and will grow 7.7% in 2025 to reach $1.1 trillion, according to a recent report from GroupM, WPPâ€s media investment group. Advertising on digital platforms — which includes retail media as a segment — is whatâ€s driving that increase.

TV, considered “the most effective form of advertising,� is expected to grow nearly 2% in 2025 to $169.1 billion in total global ad revenue. In comparison, ad revenue for “pure-play digital,� which excludes “the digital extensions of traditional media� like streaming but includes platforms like YouTube and TikTok, is expected to grow by 10% to $813.3 billion globally in 2025, according to GroupM.

Sports keep attracting big audiences and advertisers, leading media companies to pay hefty sums for the rights to games.

Commercials during live sports generated 24% more engagement than other programming, according to EDO, an advertising data company.

“Live event coverage will continue to be a cornerstone of media engagement, and streaming services must step up their game,â€� said Tim Hurd, vice president of media at Goodway Group. “As more streaming platforms dive into sports, the challenge will be to keep viewers engaged, not just by offering content, but by enhancing the overall experience with personalized, non-disruptive ad units.â€�

Comcastâ€s NBCUniversal said the Summer Olympics in Paris generated a record $1.2 billion in ad revenue. It appeared to have paid off, with the company reporting a total audience delivery of more than 30 million people on NBCâ€s TV and streaming platforms.

Fox Corp. executives have said the company already sold out of Super Bowl ads for this coming February, which reportedly cost about $7 million each. The 2024 Super Bowl had an estimated 123.7 million viewers.

And Disney said it had sold out of ads for its Christmas Day NBA games two weeks before they aired. The company added that itâ€s “pacing up substantiallyâ€� for the full NBA season when it comes to ad revenue compared with last year, and that itâ€s “already seen early movementâ€� for the postseason in the scatter market.

The audience for womenâ€s sports, driven by the WNBA in particular, also ramped up in the last year, meaning more opportunities for advertisers.

“This is beyond Caitlin Clark, even though she is a massive catalyst,â€� said Josh Mattison, Disney Advertisingâ€s executive vice president of digital revenue pricing, planning and operations. “This was a transformational year in terms of audiences.â€�

The audience for the WNBA hit a record in 2024, and consumers were 16% more likely to engage with ads during these games compared with last year, according to EDO. But while advertisers spent $8.5 billion on sports TV ads in 2024, womenâ€s sports only made up 3% of that number, according to EDO, leaving plenty of room for growth next year.

The growing popularity of womenâ€s sports and its importance for media companies was evident this month when Netflix secured the U.S. rights to the FIFA Womenâ€s World Cup in 2027 and 2031. The streaming giant has been bulking up its sports portfolio, as have its peers across the legacy and digital media space.

While consumers are cutting the cord and streaming services are now snapping up sports rights, linear TVâ€s audience still significantly outpaces streaming.

“Thereâ€s still declines in linear TV in a lot of markets, but not in all markets,â€� said Kate Scott-Dawkins, GroupMâ€s global president of business intelligence, noting there are international markets that are seeing growth. “When we talk about total TV, there is still a lot of opportunity and hopefully a renewed appreciation for how effective that can be as a medium [for advertisers].â€�

Amy Leifer, DirecTV Advertisingâ€s chief ad sales officer, said the company predicts continued growth in programmatic ad spending, or automated digital ad buying, in streaming.

“Despite the shift towards streaming, linear TV still holds a significant advantage in terms of ad impressions, generating six times more than streaming,� said Leifer.

Executives said they have been talking with advertisers about how to look at linear and streaming together when disbursing ad dollars.

Leifer said DirecTV Advertisingâ€s mantra is that “TV is TV,â€� no matter the distribution method. “Our focus for 2025 is to unify digital and linear television advertising by adopting a comprehensive approach and developing convergent TV solutions,â€� she added.

Both Marshall of NBCUniversal and Mattison of Disney said advertisers used to be focused on linear “versusâ€� streaming. Thatâ€s not the case anymore.

“The pitch [we made to advertisers] last year is you really canâ€t look at one versus the other. When itâ€s rolled out into one platform, itâ€s how do you look at digital and linear together. Thatâ€s made a huge difference,â€� said Marshall, noting that older audiences are more present on linear TV, while younger generations have gravitated toward streaming.

Marshall said that NBCUniversalâ€s Peacock “hasnâ€t been cannibalizing linear,â€� because thereâ€s little overlap between the content on both distribution outlets. “Itâ€s actually two distinct, different audiences,â€� Marshall said.

Mattison noted Disneyâ€s expansive sports portfolio and its various platforms across linear and streaming, with TV networks like ABC and ESPN, and streaming service ESPN+, which has content being added to Disney+, have been an advantage.

“The convergence [of the streaming apps] is really good for consumers, which leads to growth for advertisers,â€� he said. “Weâ€re fortunate we spent years building our streaming ad tech, and weâ€re able to maximize audience reach as well as targeting and performance.â€�

“Maybe a few years ago it was linear versus streaming. I think now itâ€s linear AND streaming,â€� Mattison continued. “Theyâ€re kind of planned together. Itâ€s true on both the media side and the advertiser side.â€�

Disclosure: Comcast owns CNBC parent NBCUniversal. NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.