The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX)reached a new all-time high of 26,105.67 as markets opened on Tuesday (May 20), representing a 4.88 percent uptick since January.
The milestone extends the index’s five week rally, which has been fueled by strong performances in the mining and financial sectors, as well as easing global trade tensions.
Gold has been a significant contributor to the TSX’s ascent as well. After peaking at US$3,500.05 per ounce in April, the metal has experienced some volatility, but remains up about 25 percent year-to-date.
Last week’s downgrade of US debt from Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) has intensified interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. The downgrade from AAA to AA1 was attributed to the nation’s growing debt levels and rising interest costs.
The firm’s move marks the first time all three major credit rating agencies — Moody’s, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) and Fitch Ratings — have rated US government debt below the top tier. The downgrade reflects concerns over the US government’s fiscal trajectory, with Moody’s stating in a May 16 release that ‘successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.’
This fiscal uncertainty has led investors to seek the stability of gold, a traditional hedge against economic instability.
Gold’s strong performance is also benefiting gold-mining equities. Gold miners across the board are reaping the rewards of record-high bullion prices, with many major producers recently reporting robust Q1 results.
Despite these results, many analysts argue gold equities remain undervalued.
There’s also a widespread belief that the gold price can keep rising.
Earlier this month, analysts at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) laid out a scenario where the yellow metal could rise to US$6,000 on the back of a 0.5 percent reallocation of foreign-held US assets to gold.
The bank estimates this shift could amount to US$273.6 billion — or 2,500 metric tons — over four years. With gold supply relatively fixed, JPMorgan notes that ‘even a slight increase in demand can have a dramatic impact on prices.’
Beyond the mining sector, easing global trade tensions have also contributed to the TSX’s record performance. Recent developments, including a truce in US-China tariffs, have alleviated concerns and bolstered market confidence.
Moving forward, market participants will be closely watching the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision in the coming weeks. Tuesday’s mixed inflation data has created some uncertainty about what’s next.
As the TSX continues its upward trajectory, investors are optimistic about the sustained growth, supported by strong commodities prices and improving global economic conditions.
As of 11:10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, the TSX was holding above 26,000.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
